In the middle of this year, we saw Sydney’s and Melbourne’s property market starting to turn around.
Though Brisbane was slower to catch up, it’s also starting to get better.
Unsurprisingly, people are wondering whether these positive trends will continue into next year or if there will be a downturn.
We’ll be looking at how Brisbane’s property market has performed so far and at a number of forecasts from different property experts.
Brisbane property market in 2019
The beginning of the year in Brisbane saw decreases in property values month after month.
Auction clearance rates have also been weak.
However, it looks like things are starting to turn around.
Attendance rates at open inspections have gone up by about +15% compared to before the election.
The federal election win has given consumers more confidence in Australia’s property market overall.
In June of this year, overall dwelling values were down -0.6% in Brisbane despite the positive changes seen in Sydney in Melbourne.
However, since then, there have been two successive months of increases in Brisbane’s overall dwelling values.
Most recently in August, it has gone up by +0.2%.
Brisbane’s property market has also been impacted by the changes from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority or APRA, and the Reserve Bank of Australia or the RBA. APRA has relaxed restrictions on serviceability buffers, allowing banks to set their own restrictions.
The RBA has also cut interest rates to record lows this year. Combined, these changes have made access to credit easier.
Brisbane property market forecast 2020
BIS Oxford Economics’ property analysts predict that Brisbane’s property market is likely to recover strongly over the next three years.
For houses, they expect a +20% increase and for units, a +14% increase.
This is their highest prediction for capital cities across Australia.
The growth is expected to be moderate in 2020 before picking up significantly in 2021 and 2022.
Domain also expects there to be moderate growth in Brisbane’s property market next year.
This is said to have been influenced by elevated unemployment and a large number of apartments entering the market.
House values in Brisbane are expected to increase by +3-5% whereas unit values are expected to increase by about +2% next year. Prices aren’t expected to fall any more for the rest of 2019.
According to CoreLogic’s Moody’s Analytics, the Brisbane unit market is set to grow by about +5.8% following the absorption of the unit oversupply.
Units are expected to grow by a further +5.3% in 2021.
Houses are also expected to have steady growth with a predicted increase of +1.9% in 2020 and then +2.3% in 2021.
On the other hand, QBE’s Housing Forecasts predicts unit prices to decrease by -2.4% in 2020 before stabilising in 2021.
However, similarly to other analysts, QBE expects there to be moderate growth for houses, +3.6% in 2020 followed by a further 6% in 2021.
The cumulative 11% growth of houses is expected to be reached by June 2021.
Overall, it looks like the sentiment in Brisbane is turning around.
Property experts are optimistic about price growth, particularly for houses, even if the growth is moderate.
Though there are mixed opinions about the future of units, most people agree that the market should bottom out by the end of 2020 at the latest.
Guest author: Ellen Orton is the Head of Business Operations at OpenAgent.com.au, an online agent comparison website helping Australians to sell, buy and own property.